As the global population approaches 10 billion by 2050, the need for sustainable food production becomes increasingly urgent. Technological innovations, such as improved crop varieties, have driven much of the yield growth over the past 60 years. However, earlier studies raised fears of a plateau in agricultural productivity, particularly in low- and middle-income nations where population growth is highest.
The research team analyzed data for 144 crops representing 98% of global agricultural land. They developed a standardized metric to measure production and yields across regions. The analysis found no global decline in yield growth. Instead, localized slowdowns were balanced by increases elsewhere, resulting in annual growth equivalent to 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare.
While the findings underscore a stable global food supply, challenges such as food affordability, climate change, and rising demand remain. The researchers highlighted the importance of sustainable practices to address these issues.
"Utilizing a comprehensive caloric-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, this paper reveals that, on an aggregate level, global yield growth-a vital indicator of agricultural productivity-has not slowed over the past six decades," the authors stated. "This steady growth equates to an annual increase of approximately 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, highlighting continued productivity gains worldwide."
Research Report:Yield growth patterns of food commodities: Insights and challenges
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