With European elections just months away, the European Commission will Tuesday put forward its next major target for cutting the bloc's global warming emissions, and agriculture -- which emits 11 percent of them -- is a key part of the equation.
Politically the timing could hardly be worse, with farmer protests simmering across Europe -- thronging Brussels with tractors last week -- and populist politicians swooping in to ride the wave of discontent.
Environmental constraints are high on the farmers' list of grievances -- both longstanding rules stemming from the bloc's common agricultural policy (CAP), and new ones from the sprawling environmental Green Deal that have yet to come into force.
The 27-nation EU has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and to get there implies massive adaptation by industry and consumers.
A first target has been set for 2030: cutting emissions by at least 55 percent compared with 1990. For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the EU will aim for a net drop of 90 percent.
But the Green Deal -- having taken on emissions in transport, energy and manufacturing -- has hit a rock when it comes to farming, faced with stiff resistance from the sector and from conservative lawmakers.
Emissions from agriculture -- two thirds of which are linked to methane and manure from livestock farming, and the rest to nitrogen-based fertilisers -- have been stable since 2005, according to Ottmar Edenhofer, chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
According to projections by the board, achieving a 90 percent target would require halving the bloc's livestock herd and slashing nitrogen fertilisers by 60 percent.
Edenhofer blames the status quo on a lack of incentives, since the CAP "continues to provide financial support to emission-intensive agricultural practices, including livestock production."
A report from the advisory board has recommended the CAP become "better aligned" with the bloc's climate goals: setting mandatory best practices, shifting support away from livestock production, and encouraging a less meat-heavy diet.
- 'Missing piece' -
But the EU knows it must tread cautiously: in The Netherlands, an ambitious scheme to cut livestock numbers and nitrogen emissions sparked a farmers revolt -- and a populist surge at the ballot box.
A working document from the commission points towards a more conciliatory approach on Tuesday.
Instead of singling out farmers, the focus appears to be on pushing agri-business as a whole towards more sustainability, while promising farmers aid and alternative sources of revenue from biofuels or carbon capture.
For Pascal Canfin, the chair of the European Parliament's environment committee, this is the "missing piece" of the political puzzle.
"The pressure has to apply not just to farmers, but to the entire food industry chain," said Canfin.
Canfin argues big food groups should be submitted to a carbon-pricing mechanism and pushed to finance large-scale reform by their suppliers -- so the cost of sustainability is split fairly between farmers, and industry giants like Nestle or Danone.
- 'Fantasy' -
Another touted solution is to pay farmers for capturing carbon in their soils and forests, with EU legislation in the works on a system of certification for these so-called carbon sinks.
In an impact study seen by AFP, Brussels puts forward net emissions targets that merge the impact of farming and natural carbon sinks.
But some advocates question that logic.
"When the commission says it will offset farm emissions with forestry, that's a little too easy, unfortunately," says the WWF's Michael Sicaud-Clyet.
"The only safe solution is to cut emissions," he added.
And advocates are also sceptical about the promise of bioenergy as a source of revenue for farmers, questioning the technology this hinges on, known as BECCS, which pairs biomass with carbon capture and storage.
Martin Pigeon, forest and climate campaigner at the NGO Fern, dismisses BECCS as a "fantasy".
"No one has ever managed to generate 'negative carbon dioxide emissions' from burning wood," he said.
If a drastic reduction in farming emissions turns out to be unattainable, the bloc will have to look elsewhere to meet its 2040 goals.
There could still be a path: the Strategic Perspectives think tank has devised models for attaining a 90-percent emissions cut that rely mostly on power generation, industry and transport -- not farming.
But to meet a more ambitious target of 95 percent would require societal change -- namely for a much greater reduction in meat consumption, says its director Neil Makaroff.
What's at stake as EU unveils 2040 climate target
Brussels (AFP) Feb 5, 2024 -
The European Commission will Tuesday unveil its next major target for cutting the bloc's global warming emissions, providing an environmental roadmap for the bloc in the run-up to EU parliamentary elections in June.
Here is what is at stake:
- The end goal -
The 27-nation European Union has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and has set a first interim target for 2030: to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared with 1990 levels.
For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the EU will aim for a net drop of 90 percent -- maintaining roughly the same pace of cuts it has pledged over the 2020-2030 period.
The next European Commission, to be appointed after the June elections, will be tasked with turning this week's recommendation into legislation for member states and EU lawmakers to consider ahead of next year's COP30 climate conference.
- A second Green Deal? -
Neil Makaroff, of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, believes the commission's focus on energy sovereignty and competitiveness "sets the right tone".
And he sees a chance for Europe to ramp up investment in clean technologies and fend off competition from the United States and China.
"This could be the cornerstone of the next mandate," he said.
Will the EU need a second Green Deal, the sweeping set of policies it agreed in 2020 with the aim of meeting its climate targets?
Pascal Canfin, chair of the European Parliament's environment committee, doubts it.
From now until 2030, "the job is done," with a "massive transformation" of society already underway, argued Canfin.
The transport sector aside, many of the Green Deal's laws -- on carbon trading or renewables -- set 2030 as a target, and will need updating.
"But it won't be radically new," said Canfin. "The acceleration is happening now. After that it will be about keeping things moving."
- Out of fossil fuels? -
In an impact report seen by AFP, the commission foresees a 70 to 80 percent fall in the amount of fossil fuels burned for energy production by 2040. In terms of exiting fossil fuels altogether, only coal was concerned.
The report factors in nuclear energy as an element of the transition.
Eight NGOs including WWF and Greenpeace have urged the EU to "set clear fossil fuel phase-out dates" -- calling for an exit from fossil gas by 2035 and oil by 2040.
- Green... and competitive -
Adolfo Aiello, of the Eurofer steel federation, is among those concerned about the scale of the task ahead -- and the potential hit to Europe's competitiveness.
"The EU steel industry's decarbonisation alone would require the equivalent of today's German electricity consumption," he warned, calling for guarantees from Brussels on levelling the playing field with parts of the world less committed on climate.
But Makaroff was more optimistic on the competitive advantage of transitioning to clean energy.
"It's a chance to invest massively in decarbonisation, to help new industries emerge, and reap the fruits in terms of job creation," he said.
With elections looming, Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group, warns however that the EU also needs to strengthen the social dimension of its climate policies.
"Getting this wrong would allow conservative and populist voices to set the direction of the next steps," she said.
- Carbon capture -
In the provisional impact report, achieving a 90-percent net emissions cut relied heavily on carbon capture -- specifically 345 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2040.
This would rely on a mix of technologies -- some relatively untested on a large-scale -- with the carbon captured to be used in manufacturing carbon-neutral synthetic fuels, or sequestered underground.
In parallel with its climate target, the commission was due Tuesday to unveil its strategy for managing carbon -- a notion many advocacy groups dismiss as a mirage.
The Real Zero Europe campaign of 140 NGOs has urged the EU to change tack, away from "speculative" carbon removal technologies which it called "dangerous distractions" and a "smokescreen for continued use of fossil fuels".
But for Pascal Canfin the EU will "need to activate all solutions" at its disposal -- especially for those industries hardest to decarbonise.
- And the cost... -
According to the impact report, the commission estimates total investment needs, in order to meet the bloc's climate targets, at around 1.5 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) per year between 2031 and 2050.
The Rousseau Institute reached a similar projection in a January report -- a sum that amounts to almost 10 percent of the combined GDP of the bloc's 27 member states.
As part of that effort, it foresaw public investment doubling to 510 billion euros per year, to "mobilise" matching private investment.
Related Links
Farming Today - Suppliers and Technology
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
