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Change in farming could lower Europe's temperature: study
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 23, 2014


Air flow changes linked to extreme weather, despite moderated temperatures
Exeter, England (UPI) Jun 23, 2013 - Arctic amplification -- the warming of the poles at a faster rate than the rest of the globe -- is one of several factors that's been blamed for the extreme cold witnessed in the U.S. and Europe this past winter. But a new study suggests global warming means less temperature variability, not more.

While it's true that arctic amplification and a slower, meandering jet stream helped instigate extreme cold spells and lingering storms over the last year, researcher James Screen says such extremes are likely to be mitigated over time.

"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day," explained Screen. "Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days."

Screen, a mathematics fellow at the University of Exeter, collaborated with a number of other researchers in analyzing climate and weather patterns of the last quarter century. The result is a study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, that suggests the future holds fewer and fewer extremely cold days.

"Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes," explained Screen. "Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past."

All that being said, a different study -- also by Screen and also published in Nature -- does suggest certain regions will see more extreme weather than others -- despite a decrease in temperature variability. These changes are predicted by high atmosphere air flows, like the jet stream, which pull cold air from arctic south and warmer weather from the tropics north.

"The impacts of large and slow moving atmospheric waves are different in different places," he explained. "In some places amplified waves increase the chance of unusually hot conditions, and in others the risk of cold, wet or dry conditions."

Screen hopes his study of major air flows and their effects on weather can help government officials better predict and prepare for extreme meteorological conditions.

If Europe adopted a style of farming that abstains from plowing after a harvest, local temperatures could drop as much as two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), researchers said Monday.

The reason lies in the color of the soil: untilled land is lighter and reflects sunlight, making the area cooler than it is when dark surfaces are present, according to scientists.

Fields that are plowed also dry out faster. In contrast, untilled land allows moisture to evaporate more slowly and can contribute to cooling.

The effects could be particularly noticeable during hot spells, said the findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal.

"For heatwave summer days the local cooling effect gained from no-till practice is of the order of 2 degrees Celsius," said the study led by scientists in Switzerland and France.

Researchers found that the unplowed stubble of wheat fields helped reflect 30 percent of incoming sunlight, compared to just 20 percent in plowed fields.

Computer models showed that the difference could translate to a difference of two degrees Celsius on hot days, though the effects would stay largely local.

"In other words, if all French farmers were to stop plowing up their fields in summer, the impact on temperatures in Germany would be negligible," said Sonia Seneviratne, professor of land-climate dynamics at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Zurich.

Advocates of no-till farming say the practice could bring even more benefits, such as saving water, preventing soil erosion and even curbing global warming.

The US Department of Agriculture, in a 2010 report, said the practice could "sequester substantial amounts of carbon" by helping the Earth contain more carbon, thereby cutting greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming.

But critics contend the practice leads to an increase in the use of chemical herbicides, since the weed-killing benefit brought by plowing is lost.

No-till farming has gained in popularity in the United States and South America, home to some 85 percent of the globe's unplowed farmland.

Europe, despite being one of the most densely cultivated regions in the world, is home to just two percent of the planet's unplowed fields, according to researchers.

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